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Draft prep: Tight end strategy tricky as ever  
 


Let's make this simple: Either you're concentrating on picking up one of the "big three" Fantasy tight ends, or you're not.

If you are, then you deserve kudos for attempting to get maximum production from a spot on your roster that would likely otherwise help your team only so much.

And if you're not, then you also deserve kudos -- for realizing that tight ends practically grow on trees, and finding one that plays every week isn't a hard task, all the while adding a better player to your roster sooner via the draft.

Because no Fantasy owner should draft more tight ends than they need to start, and no Fantasy owner should take one with a pick in the first three rounds, coming up with a strategy for drafting them isn't as important as figuring out what you want to do with them.

The big three

Two years ago, we called the three best running backs in Fantasy Football "the big three" because a case could be made for any one of them going No. 1 overall in a draft. We're borrowing that term this year to describe the three best Fantasy tight ends available: Jason Witten, Kellen Winslow and Antonio Gates.

With these tight ends, the expectation is around 1,000 yards with seven or more touchdowns -- the kind of production you'd like to see from a No. 2 Fantasy wide receiver. The advantage here is obvious -- getting one of these tight ends should result in higher weekly scores for your squad.

Assuming Antonio Gates is over his toe injury, he's a top performer at a thin position. (US Presswire)  
Assuming Antonio Gates is over his toe injury, he's a top performer at a thin position. (US Presswire)  
The disadvantage? You'll have to sacrifice a fourth- or fifth-round pick to get one of them, meaning that, in theory, you'll be a little weaker at another starting position. You probably won't know whether or not it's worth it until you're up in the draft and you see who else is available in those rounds.

The next two

There's little reason to panic if you miss on Witten, Winslow and Gates, as Redskins tight end Chris Cooley and veteran Tony Gonzalez of the Chiefs are about as good. Both play in offenses that heavily rely on their participation and both are perennially healthy.

Of course, they've got their flaws. Cooley is more about touchdowns than yards and Gonzalez is more about yardage than touchdowns. Both also play with suspect quarterbacks, though Cooley's passer (Jason Campbell) has some upside.

So when do Cooley and Gonzalez fly off draft boards? Depends on when the final member of "the big three" gets taken. In several drafts we've seen, owners tend to draft tight ends in chunks, and once the first three are off the board, these next two follow within a span of around 10 picks. They'll both be gone by the end of Round 6.

The rest

Many Fantasy scribes will tell you not to panic if you miss on any of the Top 5 Fantasy tight ends. They're right -- the remaining tight ends available in drafts all pretty much look the same and can be expected to produce roughly 500 yards and 4-5 touchdowns.

That's a big statement considering the players left at the position. But as you'll see, the big names and big potential doesn't mean likely production. Here are the best 10 tight ends after the aforementioned five -- we could ask 10 Fantasy owners to rank these 10 players and get 10 different answers with as many as five tight ends considered the best of the bunch.

Player Team Note
Dallas Clark IND Had a career year in '07 and has since been paid. At least he catches Peyton's passes.
Jeremy Shockey NO Still recovering from a broken leg and bruised ego but has upside in New Orleans' pass-happy offense.
Vernon Davis SF Lots of hype, but 24 games, 774 yards and 7 TDs in two years to show for it.
Todd Heap BAL Despite Cam Cameron, Heap is injury prone and in a poor passing offense.
Heath Miller PIT No consistency to his play and a 550-yard TE despite 18 TDs in three seasons.
Owen Daniels HOU Padded his yardage in second season, but caught only three touchdowns.
Alge Crumpler TEN On paper he's solid for Titans but a chronic knee and sagging average hurt him.
Greg Olsen CHI Might be the Bears' best receiver despite pedestrian rookie season.
L.J. Smith PHI Gets a lot of hype for a guy who's never topped five TDs or 682 receiving yards.
Benjamin Watson NE Has yet to play a 16-game season and has one year with more than 450 yards.

The reality is that none of these tight ends should be expected for 1,000 yards or more than six touchdowns. In fact, the majority of these guys will get closer to 600 yards and four touchdowns. With that information in mind, if you've whiffed on the first five tight ends, it probably means you'll wait to fill that need until one of these guys comes to you with a late-round pick (higher if you go the Clark or Shockey route).

We're not saying it's the best way to go, but if you'd rather build depth and quality at other positions, you're likely picking from this pool.

The last word is that while there are five studs and nearly a dozen decent tight ends, there are some that aren't even listed here with some nice upside. The Cardinals' Leonard Pope, Dustin Keller of the Jets, Oakland's Zach Miller, Cincinnati's Ben Utecht and John Carlson of the Seahawks all have the potential to latch on to the 10-man glut of tight ends. If you're interested in getting a backup tight end, we'd recommend one of them.

For our exclusive preseason tight end rankings, click here .

Do you have a Draft Prep question? Send your thoughts to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com and we'll get to as many as we can. Be sure to put Attn: Draft Prep in the subject field. Include your full name, hometown and state.



  
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